Mexico will gain in the long term if Trump wins, no joke

In the relationship between Mexico and the US, Mexico has been always the loser. We have lost all the time, even thought, the US official discourse has been one of good neighbors, with some cold and warm moments of course.

Now, for the first time, a potential US president talks clearly about his ideas regarding the US-Mexico relationship. If he wins the presidency and he does some of his proposals, there will be a quick negative impact on the Mexican economy. However, in the long term there will be benefits for Mexico as a country, as society, here some of them.

1)     For the first time, there will be clarity in the bilateral relationship. This is one of power and exploitation from the US against Mexico. This would give the opportunity to think Mexico as it is: the backyard of the US. As consequence, we would adopt policies accordingly: to support Mexican emigrants in the US, and to adopt nationalist’s policies to regulate US companies that are making money from our resources (e.g mining, Walmart).

2)     To face the antiimmigrant US police Mexican migrants in the US would have to organize themselves. It has been proved by history that the best social organization processes happened as a response to shocks. The agriculture worker’s movement leaded by Cesar Chavez is a good example. I sure, with Trump as president the Latin giant will wake up.

3)     Mexico would have to diversify the client portfolio to reduce its commercial dependence to the US. What about to look towards the south? There some emergent economies that are, for sure, interested in our products: Brazil, Argentina, Chile. Our relationship with the US has separated Mexico from the countries that have a shared history with us and are more like us.

4)     What about the local social processes? In the last years, we have seen less emigration to the US because it is more hard now to get into the country. This has changed the local population dynamic, especially in the rural villages. With more young people in rural areas the economy will grow. Some processes of development will flourish that will root the new generations to the land. In the 80´s and the 90´s young emigration the US was an employment option but it destroyed the social capital in those villages. Ghost towns during the year and “trocas” and beer in December. Was it development?

If Clinton wins the US exterior policy for Mexico will continue as the same. I prefer a change. With Trump, there will be some difficult months for Mexico, but in the way we face this shock, our country will become stronger in the long term.